Deal-Hunting Guides

Black Friday TV Deals: When Prices Actually Bottom Out

By Rowan Keller·Published November 4, 2026

Has been buying open-box and returned stock for over a decade, and built Warehouse Watcher to stop losing track of it.

Black Friday TV deals do not all arrive on Black Friday. Prices step down through November in waves: teaser deals in the first week, deeper cuts in Thanksgiving week, and the real floor for most models between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday, which fall on November 27 and November 30 this year. Buy in the wrong week, or buy the wrong model number, and the deal of the year quietly evaporates.

This guide maps the November price curve, explains the doorbuster trap in detail, and lays out the strategy that beats both: buying last year's model at this year's clearance price.

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When Black Friday TV deals actually bottom out

Retailers now treat the whole of November as one long sale, but the depth is not evenly spread. Early-November events, starting in the first week of the month, are genuinely good for mid-tier sets and for last year's models, which retailers begin clearing early. They are rarely the floor for current models.

• First week of November: early-access sales open. Good prices on midrange sets and older stock; current flagships barely move.
• Mid-November: weekly doorbuster rotations and leaked ads push headline models down in steps.
• Thanksgiving Day to Cyber Monday: the broadest selection and the deepest cuts of the year land here, especially on large screens.
• Early December: leftover inventory and quiet restocks get cleared, sometimes matching Black Friday prices with far less competition for stock.

The practical takeaway: if the TV you want is a current midrange model, its price in the final week is the one to beat, and tracking it from early November tells you whether the 'final' price is real. WarehouseWatcher's US deals feed follows those listings, including open-box units of the same models that undercut the new price.

The doorbuster trap: TVs built for the sale

The cheapest headline TVs at Walmart, Best Buy and Amazon each November include models you will not find in those stores in March. Manufacturers build derivative versions specifically for the sale season: a panel with a lower native refresh rate, fewer HDMI ports, a simpler processor or a cheaper stand, sold under a model number that differs from the standard range by a letter or two.

These sets are not counterfeit and the discount on them is not fake. The trap is comparison. Reviews, awards and word of mouth attach to the standard model; the doorbuster borrows the family name and the screen size while quietly giving up the picture quality that earned the praise. Samsung's model codes make the game visible if you look: the letter after the series number marks the model year, and retailer-exclusive variants carry slightly different codes with fewer features. Before any doorbuster purchase, match the full model number to a review of that exact set, and check the refresh rate and HDMI count against the standard version.

The smarter play: buy last year's model

Picture quality improves slowly. A flagship or upper-midrange TV from last year is usually within a whisker of this year's replacement in brightness, color and processing, but November is exactly when retailers clear the old stock to make room, so the price gap is at its widest. A previous-year model at a sharp discount is often the best television your money buys all year.

The strategy works at every level: last year's midrange 65-inch OLED TV routinely undercuts this year's midrange LED at similar money, and it is not close in picture quality. The one trap to avoid is the reverse: an old model priced as if it were current, which happens when a listing leans on the launch price as the 'was' figure. Compare against what the model actually sold for in October. Warehouse club pricing adds another wrinkle worth checking, since Costco often bundles extended warranty coverage with its sets; our Costco TV buying guide covers when membership pricing wins.

Sizes and classes where the real savings are

Not all screen sizes share the savings equally. The 55-inch and 65-inch classes are the volume battleground, so mainstream Mini LED and OLED sets in those sizes take the deepest percentage cuts. Very large sets, 85 inches and up, see the biggest absolute dollar reductions, which suits buyers who were already shopping big. At the other end, small budget TVs are cheap all year, so a doorbuster 43-inch set saves you little in real terms and gives the most ground on specs.

Class matters as much as size. A large percentage off an entry-level LED set can save fewer dollars, and far less picture quality, than a modest percentage off a Mini LED or OLED model. Spend the discount where your eyes can see it: brightness, contrast and motion handling, not diagonal inches alone. If you are weighing a design-led set against a conventional one at the same money, our guide on whether art TVs are worth it is worth a read before the sale starts.

Price guarantees let you buy early without the risk

If November timing makes you nervous, use the safety net most shoppers ignore: holiday price guarantees. Target's is the clearest example: buy in early November and, if Target's own price on that item drops before December 24, you can claim the difference back. Best Buy runs a similar membership-based version. That turns an early purchase from a gamble into a hedge.

Read the fine print before relying on it. These guarantees typically exclude the Black Friday doorbuster prices themselves, and windows and eligible categories vary by retailer. But for a standard model bought at a normal early-November discount, the guarantee removes the main reason people wait and then miss out on stock entirely.